Passed
The share of runs that reached the profit target inside every rule. A strategy with a positive edge and sensible risk can still sit well below 100%, because streaks of losses are normal. Use this as a planning figure, not a promise.
Free prop firm challenge simulator
Prop Firm Pass Probability Calculator
Monte Carlo Challenge Simulator
Estimate your chance of passing a prop firm challenge before you pay for one. Enter your win rate, reward-to-risk ratio, risk per trade and the firm's profit target and drawdown rules. The simulator runs thousands of random challenges and shows how many pass, how many hit the daily loss limit, how many hit the overall drawdown and how many run out of time.
Free, no sign-upDaily & overall drawdownStatic or trailingRisk-per-trade comparisonEquity path chart
- Set the rulesTarget, daily loss, drawdown and time limit.
- Add your strategyWin rate, reward:risk, risk and trades per day.
- Run 5,000 challengesRandom wins and losses, rule-checked trade by trade.
- Read your oddsPass rate, failure reasons and an equity path chart.
Prop firm pass probability simulator
Set the firm's rules and your strategy, then run the simulation.
1. Challenge rules
2. Your strategy
Estimated pass probability—
Median days to pass—
Expectancy per trade—
Fail: daily loss—
Fail: overall drawdown—
Fail: out of time—
Risk per trade—
PassedDaily lossOverall drawdownOut of time
| Risk per trade | Pass | Daily loss | Overall DD | Out of time |
|---|
Results are statistical estimates from random simulation, not predictions or guarantees. Trades are assumed independent with a fixed win rate and fixed R multiples.
Nothing you enter is sent to a server. The simulation runs in your browser. Always confirm each firm's current rules, because daily loss calculation, trailing method and consistency rules differ.
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Understanding the method
How does a prop firm pass probability calculator work?
A Monte Carlo simulation repeats the same challenge thousands of times with random trade outcomes. Each trade wins with the probability you enter and pays your reward-to-risk multiple, otherwise it loses one unit of risk. The tool tracks equity trade by trade, checks every firm rule after each trade and records whether that challenge passed or failed, and why.
The pass probability is simply the share of simulated challenges that hit the profit target before breaking the daily loss limit, the overall drawdown or the time limit. Because luck decides the order of wins and losses, two traders with the same strategy can have very different results. A simulation shows the range, not just the average.
Once you know your odds, size each position from your stop distance with the free lot size calculator and check your live limits with the prop firm challenge calculator.
Simulation rules used
- Each trade
- Win with probability W for +R × risk, otherwise lose 1 × risk. Risk is a fixed % of the starting balance.
- Daily loss
- Fails if equity falls by the daily limit from the start-of-day level.
- Static drawdown
- Fails if equity falls by the overall limit from the starting balance.
- Trailing
- The floor follows the equity peak and stops rising once it reaches the starting balance.
- Pass
- Target reached, with the minimum trading days completed.
- Timeout
- Time limit ends before the target is reached.
The rules you are simulating
Prop firm challenge rules explained
Most evaluation challenges combine the same few rules. The profit target is the gain you must reach, shown as a percentage of the starting balance. The maximum daily loss limits how far you can fall within one trading day, and the maximum overall loss limits total drawdown from the account's starting balance or equity peak.
Static drawdown keeps the loss floor fixed, while trailing drawdown raises it as your equity makes new highs. Some challenges also set a minimum number of trading days and a time limit. Firms differ on whether daily loss is measured from balance or equity, and on when the day resets, so always check the current terms before you pay.
Presets used in this simulator
- 2-step Phase 1
- 8% target, 5% daily loss, 10% overall loss, static drawdown.
- 2-step Phase 2
- 5% target, 5% daily loss, 10% overall loss, static drawdown.
- 1-step trailing
- 10% target, 3% daily loss, 6% overall loss, trailing drawdown.
- Custom
- Edit any field to match the firm you are considering.
Interpreting the output
How to read your challenge simulation results
Four outcomes, each telling you something different.
Daily loss and overall drawdown
High daily-loss failures usually mean too many trades or too much risk per trade in a single session. High overall-drawdown failures point to losing streaks that your risk size cannot absorb. The comparison table shows which side moves first as you change risk.
Out of time
The account survived but never reached the target. This often means risk per trade is too small for the time limit. Raising risk can lift the pass rate, but it raises the drawdown failures too, so read the table before changing anything.
Using the numbers
How to improve your prop firm challenge pass rate
Start with expectancy. No risk setting rescues a negative edge. If expectancy per trade is below zero, work on your entries, exits or reward-to-risk before paying for a challenge.
Find the middle on risk. The comparison table usually shows a peak: too little risk times out, too much risk breaks drawdown limits. Choose the setting with a strong pass rate and a comfortable overall-drawdown failure rate, not just the highest pass number.
Use your real stats. Take win rate and average reward-to-risk from at least 100 demo or live trades. A guessed 60% win rate gives a flattering answer that real trading rarely matches.
Common mistakes
- Inflated win rate
- Entering a hoped-for figure instead of a tested one.
- Ignoring costs
- Spreads and commissions lower your real R. Enter a slightly lower reward:risk.
- Too many trades
- More trades per day raises the chance of hitting the daily limit.
- Wrong rules
- Check whether the firm uses balance or equity for daily loss.
- One run
- Judging odds from one past challenge, rather than many.
Win rate and reward-to-risk
Break-even win rate by reward-to-risk ratio
The minimum win rate before costs, and what a 40% or 45% win rate is worth.
| Reward : risk | Break-even win rate | Expectancy at 40% wins | Expectancy at 45% wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% | −0.20 R | −0.10 R |
| 1.5 : 1 | 40.0% | 0.00 R | +0.13 R |
| 2 : 1 | 33.3% | +0.20 R | +0.35 R |
| 2.5 : 1 | 28.6% | +0.40 R | +0.58 R |
| 3 : 1 | 25.0% | +0.60 R | +0.80 R |
Spreads, commission and slippage lower your real R, so use a slightly lower reward:risk than your chart targets. A positive expectancy is needed to pass consistently, but it does not remove the risk of hitting a drawdown limit first.
A worked example
Prop firm challenge example: $100,000 account
Take the simulator's default inputs: a $100,000 account, 8% profit target, 5% daily loss, 10% static overall loss, a 45% win rate, 1:2 reward-to-risk, 1% risk per trade and 2 trades a day.
Expectancy is 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 = +0.35 R per trade. With $1,000 risked, that averages $350 per trade, about $700 a day, so the $8,000 target takes roughly 11 to 12 trading days on average. That is an average path, not a promise. The median days to pass shown by the simulator is usually lower, because the challenges that pass tend to be the ones with early winning streaks.
The risks sit in the streaks. Two losing trades in a day cost 2%, well inside the 5% daily limit, but ten losses in a row would use the full 10% overall limit. That exact streak is rare, about a 0.25% chance for any given ten trades, yet drawdown can also build through uneven wins and losses. The simulation tracks the whole path, so run it with these defaults and compare.
Example inputs and arithmetic
- Risk per trade
- 1% of $100,000 = $1,000
- Win payout
- 2 × $1,000 = +$2,000
- Loss
- −$1,000
- Expectancy
- 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 = +0.35 R
- Worst day
- 2 losses × 1% = −2% (limit 5%)
- Days to target
- 8% ÷ 0.7% per day ≈ 11.4
An honest view of accuracy
Limitations of any Monte Carlo prop firm simulator
What the model leaves out.
Simplified trades
Every trade is an independent win or loss of a fixed size. Real trading has partial exits, varying stop sizes, slippage, news spikes and correlated positions that this model does not capture.
Rules differ by firm
Firms define daily loss, trailing floors, news restrictions and consistency rules differently. Use the inputs as an approximation and read your firm's current terms. Rules can change at any time.
Estimates, not forecasts
The result is a probability from random sampling. It will move by a small amount each run. It describes your inputs, not your future results, and it cannot guarantee a pass.
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Quick answers
Prop firm pass probability FAQs
Straight answers on challenge odds, drawdown rules and how to use the simulator.
Created by VIP Algos for educational use only.
What is a prop firm pass probability calculator?
It is a tool that estimates the chance of passing a prop firm challenge from your win rate, reward-to-risk ratio, risk per trade and the firm's profit target, daily loss and drawdown rules. It uses Monte Carlo simulation to run thousands of random challenges.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation in trading?
A Monte Carlo simulation repeats a process many times with random outcomes to show the range of possible results. In trading it shuffles wins and losses according to your statistics, so you can see how streaks and drawdowns could affect an account.
What is the average prop firm challenge pass rate?
Firms rarely publish verified figures, and estimates quoted online vary widely. Your own pass rate depends on your edge, risk per trade and the firm's rules, so a simulation using your tested numbers is more useful than an industry average.
What win rate do I need to pass a prop firm challenge?
There is no single number, because win rate works together with reward-to-risk. At 1:2 reward-to-risk, a win rate above about 33% breaks even before costs. A higher margin above breakeven gives more room to survive drawdown limits.
What risk per trade should I use for a prop challenge?
Many traders use between 0.5% and 1% per trade, but the right level depends on your edge, trades per day and the daily and overall limits. Use the comparison table in the simulator to see how pass and failure rates change across risk levels.
What is the difference between static and trailing drawdown?
Static drawdown measures your loss limit from the starting balance, so the floor never moves. Trailing drawdown follows your equity peak upward, so the floor rises as you profit. Trailing rules are usually harder to survive, and many firms stop the trail at the starting balance.
Does this calculator guarantee I will pass?
No. It estimates probabilities from your inputs and a simplified model. Real trading includes costs, slippage and changing conditions, and firm rules differ. Treat the result as a planning aid, and verify rules with the firm.
Is the simulator free and does it store my data?
It is free with no sign-up. The calculation runs in your browser, and the numbers you enter are not sent to a server.
Test your plan.Change your inputs and compare the odds before you buy a challenge.
Back to the simulator